Where Is Technical Program Management Heading in 2026?

2025.30 - Last Post of The Year. I have some thoughts on where the role of Technical Program Managers is heading + I am changing my writing focus for 2026 for a very exciting reason.

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I’m shifting the focus of my newsletter writing toward paid premium content. Why?

After taking a full year off, I resumed my newsletter this past year with an emphasis on deeper, more durable content, most notably the TPM Microguides.

The response to this work, along with my first on-demand TPM course, has been unexpectedly strong. One piece of feedback that stayed with me:

“I’m in middle of my TPM interviews at Google and the frameworks and your approach to problem solving is really helpful.” - TPM Microguide on Interviews

Looking ahead to 2026, I’m working on an exciting new chapter: writing a book on AI and Technical Program Management. A group of wickedly smart TPMs are collaborating on something much needed. You will hear more on it soon.

As a result, my energy will increasingly go toward paid, premium content for this newsletter in between including the launch of additional courses in Q1 2026.

2025 was reinvigorating for me. 2026 will be shooting for the moon and I am glad you, my readers, are all for the ride. Let’s grow into better TPMs together!

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Where Is Technical Program Management Heading in 2026?

2025 Was… a Lot

2025 was nutty. For everyone.

Forget the AI hype cycle for a second. Add in big tech layoffs, a shaky economy, trade wars, wildly misguided and misinformed RTO mandates and whatever new surprise showed up this week. I honestly thought that post-pandemicwe might finally get a breather.

Nope. The roller coaster kept going. And now, layered on top of all of that, is the question I hear constantly from TPMs:

“Where is my role heading in 2026?”

Here’s how I’m thinking about it; less as bold predictions, and more as observations forming from conversations, patterns, and what I’m seeing from industry leaders and teams in the trenches.

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AI Tools Will Only Get Smarter (and Cheaper)

If Moore’s Law—or any modern variation of it—holds, then AI models and tools will continue to improve at a rapid pace. The tools we’re using today are the worst versions we’ll ever use.

The CPO of OpenAI put this perfectly on Lenny’s Podcast: this moment is a massive level-set. Without dramatically changing our workflows, our capacity will continue to increase simply because the tools get better underneath us.

This aligns with something I’ve written about before:

AI isn’t powerful because it’s magical. It’s powerful because it compounds.

TPMs who understand this will stop obsessing over “the perfect tool” and start designing workflows that age well as the tools improve.

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Experimentation Time Is Ending. It’s Time to Get Real.

The novelty phase is wearing off.

Automatic meeting summaries, Jira ticket cleanups, and surface-level dashboards were necessary first steps but they’re no longer enough. Leaders and TPMs are starting to ask the real question:

What is the actual ROI here?

The TPMs who will stand out in 2026 are the ones who can separate signal from noise, a skill TPMs have always been good at, and one that matters even more now.

We’ll see a shift toward:

• Predictive planning and scenario modeling

• Risk simulations across dependencies

• AI-assisted forecasting instead of status reporting theater

In other words: fewer gimmicks, more systems thinking.

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Lack of AI Tool Access Will Become a Real Organizational Problem

Here’s a quiet failure mode I’m seeing already.

Many companies say they “support AI,” but in practice, TPMs are stuck with generic access to ChatGPT or Claude, while the real leverage lives in specialized tools.

This is where TPM leadership needs to step up.

Listening to IC TPMs who are asking for specific tools, helping unblock security reviews, pushing through budget approvals; this will increasingly become a management responsibility, not an individual workaround.

Access is leverage. And lack of access will hurt.

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AI Training Will Become Table Stakes for TPM Teams

If you’re running a TPM org and you haven’t figured out how to fund learning yet, you will fall behind. Full stop.

We are in a rare moment where:

• High-quality AI education is widely available

• It’s taught by practitioners, not theorists

• It’s affordable relative to its impact

Platforms like Maven are leading here: industry teaching industry.

This echoes something I’ve said before: TPMs don’t need to be AI experts, but they do need to be fluent enough to ask better questions and design better systems.

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TPMs Are Running Out of Excuses Not to Experiment

I’ll be blunt.

If you’re still avoiding AI tools, or waiting for “the right time”, you’re putting yourself at risk. Not just for future roles, but for relevance in your current one. That said, job longevity has never been guaranteed. Skills alone don’t save roles. But learning does improve your odds.

The TPMs who treat AI like a curiosity will struggle. The ones who treat it like leverage will adapt.

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So… Where Is the TPM Role Actually Headed?

Here’s my current synthesis.

In 2026, we’ll see a convergence of roles, especially in smaller and mid-sized companies. The line between Product Manager and Technical Program Manager will blur even more.

Some specific shifts I expect:

• Everyone will be expected to be a builder, not just a coordinator

• Tools will replace the need for custom internal systems that once required engineering investment

• “Jira ticket wrangler” TPM roles will fade out

• TPM teams will run flatter in orgs with ~100–300 engineers

• The generalist IC TPM will make a comeback

• Companies will wait longer before hiring their first TPM, thanks to embedded AI tools like Rovo

• Engineers will absorb more program responsibilities

• Demonstrating AI fluency will become normal in TPM interviews

• Big tech TPM roles will change the least, AI will mostly enhance knowledge retrieval and basic automation

• TPMs with cross-stack experience and strong AI leverage skills will be the most in demand

• More AI tools will emerge to support TPMs, not replace them

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Final Word on 2025

None of these predictions might come true. Or all of them might. The diversity of opinions inside the industry right now is a signal in itself. The technology is moving fast, and certainty is uncertain.

One thing is clear: Constant learning, unlearning, and relearning will be the norm in 2026.

TPMs who stop experimenting will get blindsided, not because AI replaces them, but because the world around them keeps moving.

Until next time,
—Aadil